In the buzzing bars of Seville, few scenes feel more quintessentially Spanish than a plate of freshly carved jamón ibérico. Yet even this cherished national symbol is not immune to the economic tremors caused by President Trump’s escalating trade war with Europe.

A 20% tariff on Spanish ham exports to the United States, introduced in April and only temporarily lowered to 10%, has cast a cloud over Spain’s flagship food sectors. And with Trump warning tariffs could rise to 50% if trade negotiations falter before a 9 July deadline, the pressure on Spanish producers is mounting.

“The United States is one of our top, priority markets,” said Jaime Fernández, international commercial director of Grupo Osborne, makers of the premium Cinco Jotas brand. “The uncertainty complicates our long-term planning, investments and development. These tariffs pose a serious threat to our industry.”

Spain’s jamón ibérico exports form part of a €750 million cured ham sector and are just one example of how the US tariff policy is squeezing European agri-food exporters. The risk is more than hypothetical: the US is already the largest non-EU buyer of Spanish ham and one of the fastest-growing destinations for Spanish olive oil.

That momentum is now in jeopardy.

Olive oil sector at tipping point

Spain is the world’s largest producer of olive oil, and the US accounts for about half of all global olive oil consumption outside the EU. In the past decade, Spanish olive oil exports to the US have climbed from 300,000 to 430,000 tonnes annually, according to Rafael Pico Lapuente, director general of ASOLIVA, Spain’s olive oil exporters association.

But that growth could stall if tariffs rise significantly – or are applied selectively across countries. “If there is a 10% tariff applied uniformly, the impact may be minimal,” Pico Lapuente said. “But if tariffs are applied more heavily to EU countries than to rivals like Turkey or Tunisia, the playing field will tilt. That would distort the global market and severely impact Spanish producers.”

That risk is compounded by recent climate shocks. After enduring a drought that ravaged harvests and sent prices soaring, Spain’s olive oil industry had been eyeing the US as a crucial growth market.

Now, with trade policy in flux, that outlook is under threat.

Searching for new markets

As Fernández of Grupo Osborne puts it, a 10% tariff is manageable. A 20% tariff, however, would force his company “to reconsider how to accelerate growth in other markets,” including China, France, Italy and Portugal. His team is already scouting new opportunities.

Economist Javier Díaz-Giménez of IESE Business School suggests many exporters are already working on Plan B.

“If I were a CEO exposed to the US market, I’d have my sales team in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe right now,” he said. “And they would be finding new buyers.”

He also warns that fragmented tariffs across countries could create backdoors. “If Spain faces a 20% tariff, but Morocco or Andorra face 10%, products may be routed through those countries,” he said. “Policing that won’t be easy.”

Uneven weight in EU negotiations

Pico Lapuente also expressed concern about how agricultural products might be treated in EU-US negotiations. “Industrial goods have more influence than food in trade talks,” he said. “I worry that olive oil could be used as a bargaining chip.”

The European Commission said it would act “in defence of European interests,” but that may provide little reassurance for Spain’s pork and olive oil exporters staring down potential price hikes, lost market share, and longer-term uncertainty.

Economic backdrop and political stakes

All this comes at a time when Spain’s wider economy is outperforming most of its European peers. The IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.5% this year, and unemployment is at a 17-year low.

Yet the pork industry alone supports more than 400,000 jobs in Spain and is the largest in Europe. A squeeze on exports to the US threatens not just revenues, but rural livelihoods and supply chain stability.

For Fernández and others, the message is clear: if the US market becomes too unpredictable, businesses will rebalance their global strategy.

“Even the most iconic Spanish products need certainty to thrive,” he said. “If the US becomes too expensive or unreliable, we will look elsewhere.”