SEMIRARA MINING and Power Corp. (SMPC) shares declined last week following the company’s reported drop in nine-month net income, analysts said.

The Consunji-led company was among the most actively traded stocks from Nov. 3 to 7, with 11.53 million shares changing hands worth P348.87 million, according to Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) data.

Semirara’s share price closed at P30 on Friday, down 9.2% from P33.05 the previous week. The decline outpaced the industrial sector’s 5.3% drop and the benchmark PSE index (PSEi), which fell 2.9% over the same period. Year to date, the stock is down 14%, compared with a 9.8% decline in the industrial sector and an 11.8% fall in the PSEi.

Juan Alfonso G. Teodoro, equity trader at Timson Securities, Inc., said in a Viber message that the decline “can be attributed to the drop in Semirara’s net earnings, which triggered a round of selling as investors priced in slower profitability and softer demand.”

He added: “The stock slid, reflecting cautious sentiment and light profit taking from recent highs. Investors adjusted positions and waited for more clarity on how commodity prices will affect future performance.”

In a stock exchange disclosure on Tuesday, Semirara reported a 37% drop in net income to P9.89 billion for the first nine months of 2025, citing lower coal and electricity prices and higher production-related costs.

Franco M. Fernandez, equity research analyst at DragonFi Securities, Inc., said in a Viber message that Semirara’s share price began to fall after the company declared a lower special cash dividend on Oct. 20.

In an exchange filing, Semirara announced a special cash dividend of P1.25 per share, bringing total dividend payments for 2025 to P13.80 billion.

Mr. Fernandez said: “The smaller payout signaled that third-quarter earnings had likely weakened again. When results were released confirming a 37% drop in net income due to softer coal prices, weaker spot prices, and higher production costs, sentiment on SCC deteriorated further.”

He added: “The outlook for 2025–2026 also turned cautious with management unable to completely adapt as coal prices remain near their lows.”

For the nine-month period, Semirara reported a 15% increase in coal production to a record 15.1 million metric tons (MMT), following improved access to coal seams at the Narra mine. Coal shipments rose 5% to 12.9 MMT, also a record high, driven by stronger exports.

Semirara’s total power sales grew 12% to a record 4,186 gigawatt-hours, citing improved plant performance. Despite this, the company’s average selling price for coal fell 19% to P2,325 per metric ton, while electricity prices dropped 10% to P4.46 per kilowatt-hour.

Mr. Fernandez said subdued overall confidence and demand in the PSE amid slower expected economic growth intensified selling pressure on companies with weaker earnings like Semirara.

He added: “Given the market’s poor year-to-date performance, I think investors are more focused on tangible returns through growing dividends.”

In the coming weeks, he said investors should watch for “potential technical rebound as Semirara trades in deeply oversold territory.”

Mr. Teodoro advised monitoring Semirara’s power generation performance, coal price movements, and any disclosures indicating improvements in demand.

Semirara’s consolidated revenue fell 8.8% to P11.93 billion in the third quarter, bringing total nine-month revenue to P43.26 billion, down 12.9% from the previous year. Its third-quarter net income was halved to P1.48 billion, resulting in the nine-month net income of P9.89 billion.

Mr. Fernandez projects full-year 2025 revenue at P56.7 billion, with net income reaching P14.2 billion. Mr. Teodoro expects full-year earnings of around P25.45 billion.

On the stock market, Mr. Fernandez placed support between P28 and P29 per share and resistance at P31, while Mr. Teodoro set support at P27.50-P28 and resistance at P30-P32 per share. — Isa Jane D. Acabal